Who Will Prevail in The Premier League Title Race?

With 25 games played in the Premier League, we are now into the final third of the season as of this week and at the current moment in time, there are three teams that will feel that they still have a realistic chance of claiming the Premier League title.

Currently at the top of the table, at least until tonight’s game between Everton and Manchester City are Liverpool and they are being pursued by the aforementioned Manchester City, the current Champions. Just behind City are Tottenham, who have got themselves back into contention after landing two excellent wins in the last two games, to close the gap on both teams above them.

In this article, we are going to take a look ahead to the games that each team has remaining in the competition, other matches that they have to play (and could potentially play) as well as any injuries or other factors that could influence their chances of winning the Premier League top prize going forward.

By the end of the article, we’ll have predicted how many points each team will claim from the 39 remaining for each and give you our view on who will eventually win the league title.

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Let’s start by taking a look at the remaining Premier League fixtures, plus other fixture commitments, for each of the three teams in contention.

Remaining Premier League Fixtures

Fixture No Liverpool Manchester City Tottenham Hotspur
26 V Bournemouth (H) V Everton (A) V Leicester City (H)
27 V Manchester Utd (A) V Chelsea (H) V Burnley (A)
28 V Watford (H) V West Ham (H) V Chelsea (A)
29 V Everton (A) V Bournemouth (A) V Arsenal (H)
30 V Burnley (H) V Watford (H) V Southampton (A)
31 V Fulham (A) V Manchester Utd (A) V Crystal Palace (H)
32 V Tottenham (H) V Fulham (A) V Liverpool (A)
33 V Southampton (A) V Cardiff City (H) V Brighton (H)
34 V Chelsea (H) V Crystal Palace (A) V Huddersfield (H)
35 V Cardiff City (A) V Tottenham (H) V Manchester City (A)
36 V Huddersfield (H) V Burnley (A) V West Ham (H)
37 V Newcastle Utd (A) V Leicester City (H) V Bournemouth (A)
38 V Wolves (H) V Brighton (A) V Everton (H)

What is clear from the fixture list is that it is Tottenham that have by far the toughest run in of the three teams as they face games with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City away from home as well as a home clash with Arsenal.

In contrast, Liverpool face away games with Manchester United and Everton, plus home games with Tottenham and Chelsea as their toughest games and City have home games with Chelsea and Tottenham, plus away games at Everton and Manchester United to come, which is very similar to what Liverpool face.

However, a factor in these games could well be fatigue from other games that teams are involved in, so let’s now take a look at any other games each of the three teams could be involved in over the rest of the season.  

Other Confirmed Fixtures

Competition Liverpool Manchester City Tottenham Hotspur
FA Cup None V Newport Co (5th Round) + Potential Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final Ties None
Carabao Cup None V Chelsea (Final) None
Champions League V Bayern Munich (2 Legs) & Potential Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Final (5 extra games) V Schalke 04 (2 legs) & Potential Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Final (5 extra games) V Borussia Dortmund (2 Legs) & Potential Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Final (5 extra games)

What is very clear from this list is that Manchester City have by far the busiest fixture schedule of the three teams. Liverpool and Spurs have just two more confirmed matches other than their Premier League commitments (in the Champions League Round of 16) but both could also play a further five games in this competition should they reach the final.

City too have a Champions League Round of 16 two-legged tie to negotiate and they too could face five further games in that competition if they progress, but they also have a Carabao Cup Final coming up in February, along with an FA Cup Fifth Round tie against Newport County. City could then face a further three FA Cup ties if they reached the final, meaning that they could play a maximum of a further 13 games on top of their Premier League commitment. In contrast, the maximum number of extra games Liverpool and Spurs could play is seven.

So while Liverpool and City may have the easier run in of the three teams, Spurs and Liverpool face potentially fewer games to play over the final few months of the season, which puts City, who are still battling on four fronts, at a disadvantage, but a welcome one for their fans and players.

Key Injuries

  • Liverpool – Joe Gomez (Out until March), Trent Alexander Arnold (Return imminent), Gini Wijnaldum & Jordan Henderson (Short Term Injuries), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Out until March), Dejan Lovren (Short term)
  • Manchester City – Bernard Mendy (Return Imminent), Claudio Bravo (long term), Vincent Kompany (Return Soon)
  • Tottenham – Harry Kane (Out until End Feb/Mar), Dele Alli (Out until March)

In terms of injuries, it seems Liverpool are in the worst state of the teams with problems at right back, centre back and in central midfield. Tottenham too are missing two key men in Kane and Alli but City’s injury concerns are relatively light with Claudio Bravo, their second choice goalkeeper, their only long term absentee.

Of course, injuries can strike at any time and especially late on in the season when the stress of a long season and lots of games can kick in. As such having a strong squad with fewer injuries is a huge advantage and City do seem to have the advantage here.

Premier League Points Predictions

Having taken into account each teams remaining league fixtures, other fixtures, injury problems and whatnot, here is how we see each team doing in terms of accruing points over the final 13 games of the season.

  • Liverpool – 28 out of 39 points
  • Man City – 30 out of 39 points
  • Tottenham – 26 out of 39 points

Which if correct would leave the final Premier League table top three places as being:

  1. Liverpool – 90 Points
  2. Manchester City – 89 Points
  3. Tottenham – 83 Points

Whether or not this is how things turn out is open to debate but one thing is for sure, it promises to be one extremely exciting end to the season.